How many customers will actually install the app?
Between 5% and 20% of your active customers in the first year, and the number depends far more on when you ask than on how good the app is.
What moves the number
The single biggest factor is the moment of the ask. An install prompt on the order confirmation — when somebody has just bought, is pleased, and wants to know where their parcel is — converts several times better than a banner on a category page. The second biggest is having a reason: “track your order” and “get told when this is back” both work; “download our app” does not.
Category matters too, and predictably: stores whose customers buy monthly see far higher install rates than stores whose customers buy once a year. If your repeat rate is low, an app will be installed by few people and used by fewer, and that is the honest reason to fix the repeat rate first.
What a realistic first year looks like
- Month one: a spike from your email list and your most loyal customers. Do not read the trend from this month.
- Months two to six: steady accumulation from order confirmations and post-purchase messages. This is the real rate.
- After that: installs track new-customer growth, plus whatever you do deliberately.
The number that actually matters
Not installs — share of revenue coming through the app. A store with 8% of customers installed and 25% of revenue in the app has an app that is working, because the people who installed it are the ones who buy most. Watching install count alone flatters a campaign and hides whether anybody is using it.